We've been saying it for months, and now a PolitiFact examination supports our conclusion that the anti-Amendment 4 so-called "economic study" predicting dire job losses is not valid and ruled it "Barely True."
In enlisting several independent economists, the PolitiFact story should put rest to the Big Lie that opponents have been trying to peddle for months: that Amendment 4 is a jobs-killer. Already, prominent columnists such as Howard Troxler of the St. Petersburg Times, Carl Hiaasen of the Miami Herald and Lauren Ritchie of the Orlando Sentinel had already dismissed the study and dire warnings from opponents of Amendment 4.
Check out what these economists told PolitiFact:
Dr. Christopher Cotton is a professor with UM’s School of Business, who specializes in political economics and experimental economics. Prior to becoming a professor, he worked as a consultant conducting economic impact studies. He has not written or advocated on Amendment 4 in this election.
Cotton was critical of the WEG study, saying: "I see absolutely no reason to believe the findings of the Washington Economics Group report."
And this from well-known University of Florida economist David Denslow:
"We don't know for sure how voters will react, how the legislature will react, how developers will react. Nor do we know for sure what Florida's growth path would be without Amendment 4, as a base. Adding to the uncertainty is the current truly unusual state of the housing market. Would Amendment 4 increase the demand for vacant houses because it'll be harder to build new ones? Or would it reduce the demand because people will think Florida will stop growing and not want to start new businesses?"
PolitiFact's conclusion?:
We steer clear of ruling on predictions, and that's the issue we have with the blanket statement made by "No on 4." The opponents use a scary number of $34 billion in lost economic output based on assumptions that other economists -- even two economists who also are opposed to Amendment 4 -- say aren't knowable.
You can read the entire PolitiFact finding at http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2010/oct/15/citizens-lower-taxes-and-stronger-economy/study-claims-amendment-4-will-cause-34-billion-imp
Tea Parties for Amendment 4
